2013 Formula 1 World Champion is coming to a foregone conclusion and only bad luck( a lot of it) can prevent Vettel from winning an elusive fourth title. This feat will take him at par with Alain Prost in all time list of World Champions. He will then lie third in the list behind Juan Manuel Fangio and countrymen Michael Schumacher. We do the maths for you and tell you where will Vettel win his fourth Formula 1 World Championship.
Japan provides Vettel with the earliest chance of winning his fourth consecutive title. This is the place where multiple legendary drivers were crowned World Champions and it was at this very place where Vettel took his second world title. If Vettel wants to return from Suzuka as 2013 World Champion, he will have to have a lead of at least 100 points. His current lead lies at 60 points so he needs to increase his lead by 20 points in each of the next two races over Fernando Alonso. Considering, Fernando Alonso has finished second in each of the three races since the summer break with Vettel coming out on top of each of them, the latter will only be able to increase his lead by 14 points in next two races. That won't be enough for Vettel to take the title in Japan. Alonso will have to finish eight or lower in next two races for Vettel to take the title in Japan.
India provides Sebastian Vettel with the best chance of winning his fourth title. He has won both the Indian Grand Prixs we've had so far and he will need a 75 points lead over Fernando Alonso to leave Delhi as a four time world champion. Again, if Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso finish in first and second place respectively in each of three races in October, including India, Vettel's lead over Alonso will stand at 81 points and that will be more than enough for the German driver to be the 2013 Formula 1 world champion.
While Niki Lauda believes Sebastian Vettel has the pace to win the remaining six races of the season, luck is not always on one's side and something might happen in next three races, which might mean Vettel will have to wait a bit more for taking his fourth title. So if Vettel has a reliability issue in next three races, or for some reason, Vettel is not able to extend the lead by the required margin, the German will have to wait until Abu Dhabi to be crowned the 2013 world champion. At this point, Vettel will require a 50 points lead in the drivers championship. So even if Alonso is able to cut Vettel's lead by 9 points in next four races, the 26 year old will still take the title.